Jalisco Forecast Predicts Warmer November with Above-Average Rainfall

Specialists from the Institute of Astronomy and Meteorology (IAM) at the University of Guadalajara have issued a weather forecast for November 2026, anticipating warmer-than-usual temperatures and rainfall levels that exceed typical climatological averages for the region. Despite the prediction of increased precipitation, experts clarified that this does not necessarily imply constant or heavy rain, as the state is currently transitioning into its dry season.

Julio Zamora Salvador, an operational meteorologist at the IAM, explained that the current atmospheric conditions are significantly influenced by the El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to persist until the middle of spring 2027. This climate driver modifies atmospheric circulation patterns, directly impacting temperature and moisture distribution across Jalisco. Historically, November in this region typically sees between 20 and 25 millimeters of rainfall.

Regarding temperatures, the forecast suggests a mix of conditions. While the month is expected to be warmer than average, residents should still prepare for cooler afternoons, particularly on cloudy days. On sunny days, maximum temperatures are projected to reach between 25 and 29 degrees Celsius. Zamora Salvador emphasized that these variations are normal as the region moves away from the peak rainy season.

Reflecting on the broader 2026 rainy season, geographer Carlos Román Castañeda noted that total rainfall has been above the annual average. The IAM station recorded 986 millimeters of rain this year, surpassing the climatological mean of approximately 926 millimeters. However, this does not represent a record; the highest rainfall in the last three decades occurred in 2022, when the station measured 1,482 millimeters. The distribution of these storms is often localized, influenced by the region's complex volcanic and geological terrain.

The experts also addressed the risk of thermal inversions, which tend to trap pollutants near the surface during clear, calm nights with little wind or rain. For individuals with respiratory sensitivities, the IAM recommends wearing face masks and monitoring air quality reports. Furthermore, it is advised that outdoor physical activities, such as running or walking, be avoided during the early morning hours until the inversions dissipate, typically between 10:00 and 11:00 a.m. as solar radiation increases.

Looking back at October, professor Stephany Arellano attributed the significant rainfall to the passage of five cyclonic systems that reached hurricane status in the Pacific Ocean. These storms effectively transported moisture into Jalisco and neighboring states, contributing to the elevated precipitation levels observed last month. The institute continues to monitor these patterns and encourages the public to stay informed through their official social media channels for daily updates.