Saudi Aramco Steps Up Crude Shipments to Europe Amid Regional Strikes

Saudi Aramco has increased spot crude offerings to European buyers, in some instances at a discount against its official selling price, as the kingdom works to ease regional supply strains following disruptions to key transport infrastructure.

The state-owned oil giant offered cargoes for delivery in late October and November, allowing buyers to take delivery at Egypt's Mediterranean port of Sidi Kerir or the Red Sea port of Yanbu. These offers materialized after Saudi Arabia reactivated its critical East-West Pipeline, which had earlier been forced offline by an attack that suspended export flows from Yanbu. Aramco previously told European refiners they would receive no long-term contractual crude for October, but the company has now confirmed that customers will receive their full contractual allocations for November. Market traders noted that the additional Saudi crude helped lower European prices for several grades.

The restoration of flows comes as Middle Eastern energy producers work to rebuild export volumes. Tracking data indicates Saudi Arabia typically ships between 700,000 and 800,000 barrels per day of crude to Europe. Unpredictability surrounding long-term shipments has increasingly pushed European refiners toward spot transactions. Overall Saudi production rose by one-third in September to exceed 8 million barrels per day, rebounding from three-decade lows recorded the previous month.

Despite these distribution efforts, Saudi energy operations face ongoing security threats. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels claimed Tuesday that they struck Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura complex on the Persian Gulf with a ballistic missile. Ras Tanura houses the kingdom's largest refinery, with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day, as well as an extensive export terminal. While Saudi authorities did not immediately verify damage, satellite heat data from NASA FIRMS and reports from individuals familiar with the matter confirmed that a fire occurred near the terminal before being contained.

The assault at Ras Tanura followed multiple Houthi attempts to hit Riyadh's international airport, the East-West Pipeline, and other regional military installations, which have fractured a 2022 United Nations-backed truce. In response, Britain, France, Egypt, and Pakistan have pledged varied forms of defense assistance to Saudi Arabia, with the Egyptian parliament authorizing military support if requested. The Trump administration has thus far declined Saudi aid requests, as American forces remain heavily engaged in Strait of Hormuz operations that have depleted interceptor stockpiles.

Simultaneously, Aramco's downstream footprint in Europe is facing questions over long-term stability. Polish Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka moved Wednesday to downplay press reports that Aramco is weighing a full exit from Poland or the sale of its wholesale branch, Aramco Fuels Poland. Polish officials emphasized that fuel deliveries remain completely secured and that Saudi Aramco has given no formal signal of changes that could disrupt the national oil market or pose security risks.

Poland's Ministry of State Assets noted that the commercial landscape remains dynamic, with state-controlled refiner Orlen preparing further consultations with Aramco executives. Aramco entered the Polish market in 2022 by acquiring a 30 percent stake in the Gdańsk Refinery, alongside other joint ventures, as part of European Commission regulatory remedies for Orlen's merger with Grupa Lotos. Any change in ownership at the Gdańsk site remains subject to government review, with state ministers retaining the authority to block sales that threaten critical infrastructure.