UN Warns of Unprecedented El Niño Intensity and Severe Global Impacts

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a severe warning that the ongoing El Niño episode could reach an unprecedented intensity in monitoring records. During a joint briefing in Geneva, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo and United Nations Humanitarian Affairs Chief Tom Fletcher cautioned that sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific could soar up to 3.8 degrees Celsius above average between November 2026 and January 2027.

El Niño is a recurring natural climate phenomenon that alters global wind patterns, rainfall, and temperatures every two to seven years by warming the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. While its localized effects vary widely, the upcoming cycle threatens to disrupt agricultural production, strain water resources, and multiply extreme weather events such as droughts, severe storms, and floods across multiple continents.

Detailing the historical significance of the forecast, Saulo noted that past intense episodes typically observed temperature anomalies near 3 degrees Celsius, which already triggered profound worldwide consequences. "We have never recorded a value of 3.8 in the past," Saulo stated, adding that current projections push conditions "beyond that limit, out of our records, out of our statistics on what we can expect."

The humanitarian implications of the unfolding climate event are immense. Tom Fletcher described the developing pattern as a destructive force that will severely impact Latin America, East and Southern Africa, Asia, and the Pacific region. Fletcher warned that the phenomenon risks compounding existing crises, potentially exposing 50 million people to worsening hunger amid intersecting challenges such as armed conflict, population displacement, and high fuel and food costs.

In response to the mounting risks, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has unlocked more than 50 million dollars from the Central Emergency Response Fund to support 11 particularly exposed countries, including Chad, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan. The funding aims to bolster localized humanitarian operations before severe dry spells, heavy rains, and food insecurity intensify.

Regional projections highlight sharply contrasting risks worldwide. In the Americas, parts of South America and northwestern regions could face excessive rainfall and flooding, whereas the Amazon, Central America, and the southern Caribbean face heightened drought risks. Meanwhile, East Africa braces for excessive wet conditions and potential landslides, while Southern Africa anticipates drier weather that could threaten crops and livestock.

Despite the alarming forecast, UN officials emphasized that severe climate shifts do not automatically translate into humanitarian disasters if proper safeguards are taken. Saulo urged global governments to act decisively ahead of time by strengthening early warning systems, securing water sources, and coordinating preemptive measures. "We cannot stop El Niño. But we can prevent many of its worst consequences for humanity," Saulo concluded.