Old Farmer's Almanac and NOAA Release 2026 Christmas Weather Forecasts

As November progresses and holiday travel planning gets underway, forecasters have released their initial holiday weather outlooks. The Old Farmer's Almanac published its annual snowfall forecast for Christmas Day, revealing a split across different regions of the United States. Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provides historical climate maps to help travelers and residents understand their odds of seeing snow on December 25.

For regions like the Northeast, parts of the Intermountain area, and Alaska, the Almanac's outlook firmly places them in the snowy holiday column. Vermont and upstate New York are predicted to experience a white Christmas, and the publication notes that the Northeast could see heavy snow around December 25 and 26. In contrast, locations in the Atlantic Corridor, including New York City, New Jersey, and Delaware, alongside the Southeast, Upper Midwest, and other regions, are not expected to see snow on the holiday.

Other parts of the country face a more uncertain outlook. The Lower Lakes, Ohio Valley, High Plains, and Pacific Northwest hold a cautious chance of a white Christmas. The Almanac also advises homeowners to prepare for a winter season characterized by snow, sleet, and weather surprises extending through March 2027.

Defining a white Christmas relies on specific meteorological criteria rather than falling flakes during morning gift-giving. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an official white Christmas requires at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. Snow that falls earlier in December and remains on the ground counts toward this total, whereas snow arriving after the morning measurement comes too late.

Historical climate data from the agency, spanning from 1991 through 2020, helps clarify regional probabilities for travelers evaluating different destinations. While cities like Denver historically hold roughly a one-in-three chance of waking up to snow on the ground, areas such as Minnesota, Maine, upstate New York, and the Rockies show much higher statistical odds. Similarly, the Allegheny Mountains in Pennsylvania and West Virginia provide stronger prospects for travelers seeking snowy East Coast environments.

Meteorologists emphasize that actual holiday conditions can vary widely from historical averages and early seasonal forecasts. Experts recommend monitoring local National Weather Service forecasts within seven days of Christmas to obtain accurate updates for specific destinations and travel routes.